Prophecy Letters
"Blessed are your eyes, for they see: and your ears, for they hear. For verily I say unto you, That many prophets and righteous men have desired to see those things which ye see, and have not seen them; and to hear those things which ye hear, and have not heard them." Matt. 13:16-17
The Prophecy Letter is a circular letter that we send out relating to the development of latter-day prophecy.
December 2024
The Fall of Syria’s Assad Regime – What Does it Mean?
TGP Prophecy Letter – December 10, 2024
The 54-year reign of the Assad regime in Syria has just recently come to a very swift end (Associated Press). It seemed like less than a week went by from the time that we heard that rebels began an assault to the fleeing of Bashar Assad to Russia in utter defeat (Associated Press). This change in Syrian leadership has profound implications not only for Israel and her other Islamic neighbors, but for Russia, Iran, and the rest of the Ezekiel 38 confederacy as well. While it is still too early to look too far into the future of what will happen, there are a few certain things we can examine. In this Prophecy Letter, we’ll explain what happened, why, and how the nations are responding; all in the context of what it means concerning prophecy.
What Happened, and Who are the Rebels?
The Syrian ruler who was just ousted is named Bashar al-Assad, and he is the son and successor of Hafez al-Assad who began his family’s rule of the country. He was a ruthless dictator, and his son Bashar proved no different. Because of the cruelty of his rule, various rebel groups formed in the hopes of overthrowing Assad’s government, and Syria has been fraught with civil war since 2011. We just saw the end of this civil war (at least in respect to Assad).
The rebel group that led this successful assault calls itself Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, abbreviated HTS. Its leader is named Abu Mohammed al-Golani, and I find it interesting that he dresses himself similarly to Ukrainian President Zelensky in what is likely an effort to brand himself as “the good guy who fights the oppressor” (see image in this article). Assad’s removal is being celebrated by most Syrians, and now that he is gone, thousands of who previously fled the country because of his terror are now returning to Syria (Business Insider).
From a prophetic view, the first question in our mind was, How do the new rulers of Syria view Israel? We know of Syria’s role in the latter-day wars thanks to Scripture, and we’re told that they will fight against Israel. Syria is included in the Psalm 83 confederacy under the titles of “the Hagarenes” and “Assur”, the Hagarenes relating to the southern portion of modern Syria and Assur encompassing the northern part of the country (Psalm 83:6, 8). Isaiah 17:1-7 gives more specific information on their conflict with Israel, and we here learn that one result is that “Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap… The fortress also shall depart from Ephraim, and the kingdom from Damascus, and the remnant from Syria…” (Isaiah 17:1, 3). We see that Damascus will be destroyed and that Israel will weakened, but still going. So, are the new rebel leaders of Syria the kind who seek conflict with Israel, or are they seeking friendly ties? Their position can help indicate how close we are to the fulfilment of the prophecy.
At this early stage, we need to acknowledge that HTS (the rebel group) is currently assessing the situation to determine what the most profitable stances are for them. That being said, many rebels have made their position on Israel clear:
WATCH: Syrian rebels vow to liberate Jerusalem and Saudi Arabia – World Israel News
They are a self-proclaimed jihadist group, and they sprang out of al-Qaeda (CSIS).They view the Jews as occupiers just as many other Islamists do, and they believe it is their holy duty to fight the Jews and reclaim the land. We imagine that this will be the position officially adopted by whatever kind of government HTS creates in Syria, but we wait to see. I would not be surprised if we initially saw moves of warm friendship toward Israel, but these would likely turn bitter fairly quick. Israel’s response so far also shows their distrust of the new rulers, and we’ll look at that shortly. For more on who the Syrian rebels are, this article from NPR is helpful.
Why did Assad Fall?
We are going to lay out how many of the latter-day nations are responding to this tectonic shift in the political sphere, but before we do that, it’s important to examine why Assad fell to see how this development affects the world-prophetic scene. If you have a few minutes, I highly encourage watching this short video overview from CNN which explains this very thing, but the essence of it is this:
The Assad regime was supported by the US and Russia (more so Russia), and they helped Assad fight some of his battles against the rebels to help keep him in power. There is a constant battle between the Eastern and the Western powers over influence in the Middle East, and the primary way nations have gone about gaining influence is by helping the region’s existing leaders so much that the leaders owe them allegiance. The reasoning of the world governments is basically this: “Assad, we will help you stay in power, but you must do _______ for us and listen to us on ________ subjects.” Both the East and the West are constantly engaged in this kind of dance, and the Middle East is therefore merely a puppet show stage where the East and West can fight one another through these nations instead of a direct, head-to-head conflict.
Russia had certainly won the greatest influence in Syria thanks to their overwhelming support and defense of the Assad regime, but the war in Ukraine hindered Russia’s ability to help. While some troops and air support were sent to his aid, Russia’s military supplies have been markedly drained by the war in Ukraine, and any soldiers Russia has left have to be committed to the Ukrainian front. When the rebel forces began their lighting assault toward Damascus, Russia was not able to respond effectively.
Iran, as an ally of Russia, also heavily supported the Assad regime, and they viewed them as another one of their proxies. But Hamas and Hezbollah are also Iranian proxies, and their ongoing conflict with Israel has put a stress on Iran as these powers are largely funded and armed by Iran. Like Russia, Iran was also distracted from their Syrian ally, and while there was talk of them getting directly involved when the rebels began their assault, Assad was ousted before Iran could make any significant moves. In short, the reason Assad fell now is because his allies who were keeping him in power were stretched too thin to help him, and the Syrian rebels took advantage of this. This is a huge blow for both Iran and Russia (Telegraph, NBC).
This current development is incredibly helpful to the prophecy student, for it gives us a real-time example of how the angels work to accomplish goals through indirect means. Who would have thought that the Ukraine war would result in the fall of the Assad regime and therefore the decrease of Russian influence in the area? Yet it also serves as an important lesson which must be taken to heart. While Assad’s overthrow now seems like such a logical “no duh” result of the Ukraine war, this just helps humble and remind us that we cannot always know the full purpose of events until after the fact.
It’s a fact indeed that most prophecies are only fully understood after they are fulfilled, and we must keep this in mind when looking at the other unfulfilled prophecies so we are not too dogmatic and go beyond our carnal limitations. Prophecy was not given to glorify man and fill him with “all of the answers”, but to warn man of what is to come so that when prophecy is fulfilled, God is glorified and man is given a concrete foundation for belief in His Word.
Now, let’s consider how the nations have responded and how it may relate to prophecy:
Israel’s Response
While Israel initially seemed surprised at Assad’s fall, Netanyahu quickly claimed that this was part of Israel’s doing:
Netanyahu: Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, Iran caused Assad's downfall – World Israel News
It would not surprise me if Israel helped coddle the flame of rebellion in Syria in order to oust Assad, but whatever happened, Israel has certainly made good on the opportunity to take back strategic positions from Syria. Israel has now seized the Syrian portion of the Golan Heights, for this mountainous area overlooks Israel and is one of the most important defensive positions to hold:
Israel forces conquer Syrian side of Mount Hermon – World Israel News
Showing distrust with the new Syrian rulers, Israel has also destroyed many of Syria’s weapons and defense systems:
Israel Strikes Military Assets Across Syria to Keep Them From Rebels – The New York Times
Israeli Strikes Hit Syria’s Navy, Military Arsenals – Wall Street Journal
Israel will step up airstrikes on Syrian stores of advanced weaponry – The Jerusalem Post
We are also seeing that Israeli tanks are only about 20km from Damascus, a move which Israel has said is strictly defensive (Israel National News, Reuters).
This could not have worked out better for Israel (as of now, at least). They’ve been able to retrieve the Golan Heights and take out military threats in Syria essentially without repercussions as Syria is transitioning from an old government to a new one. Nevertheless, we know from God’s Word that Syria will be an enemy against Israel, so although we may not know how this will develop, we know that it will, and we therefore just watch to see how it comes to pass.
My belief is that this might be one reason that we read of an Islamic confederacy which comes against Israel in Psalm 83 and not separate attacks from all of the players. The Islamic nations are prideful and often despise one another (Shia versus Shiite disputes), and while each one wants to have the glory of being the liberator of Jerusalem, history has shown that when they attack Israel alone, they fail miserably. In times when they have joined together, the sense of rivalry was still intact and they therefore didn’t operate as a true confederacy, and they therefore again failed, just less miserably. But perhaps this will help them learn that “if we are ever to retake Jerusalem from the Jews, we must set aside our differences and take a united stand.” The fall of Assad could therefore easily work to help create the Psalm 83 confederacy. We wait to see.
Iran’s Response
Many nations are upset to see Assad’s fall, and one of these is Iran. Known in prophecy by the name of Persia, Iran is over 1,100 miles away from their Israeli enemy, so they essentially have two main weapons at their disposal if they want to harm Israel from afar: one is their proxies like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the old Assad regime, and the other is their nuclear arsenal. Iran had been working hard to encircle Israel with proxies who carry out her will, and the Assad regime was an important part of this. But now that Assad has been ousted from Syria, this hampers the effectiveness of Iran’s “proxy tool” and is being hailed as the beginning of “the collapse of Iran’s regional strategy” (All Israel News). As testament to how significant this is for Iran, the following headline just appeared (I found it humorous):
Iranian leaders ‘punching each other’ over Syria collapse – World Israel News
What does this mean? It means that if the proxy tool isn’t working, Iran will have to increase their use of their other tool of destruction: their nuclear arsenal. This is exactly what we see happening:
Assad’s collapse comes as Iran ‘dramatically’ increased uranium enrichment – Jewish Insider
Iran's Nuclear Leap Is Close To Bomb-Grade: Report – Newsweek
Iran is beefing up its nuclear program, putting the world on edge – Daily Digest
Having just written these words, I just found a news article which has drawn the same conclusion:
How the Assad regime’s collapse could force Iran to go nuclear – The Hill
How exciting (from a prophetic view, of course)! Things could heat up between Israel and Iran really fast, but we wait to see. It’s certain that Iran is going to try and save their Syrian proxy in any way they can, and Iran has already initiated contact with the new Syrian rulers (Reuters). I don’t expect them to have much success, but who knows.
As to how this fits into prophecy, it would seem on the surface that Iran losing their Syrian proxy would sort of “turn back” the prophetic dial as that nation is now no longer under the thumb of Iran, but I believe it actually brings the scene closer to what we find in Scriptures. Again, Iran is NOT part of Psalm 83. Many have tried to include them in there, but it’s an inescapable fact that Persia is nowhere listed in the confederacy, and it is this way for a purpose. We have stated our conviction many times that Iran will not be a direct player in the Psalm 83 conflict for this reason, and the loss of their Syrian proxy could help explain why. Even though Iran seems to currently be the glue which seems to hold some of these Psalm 83 nations together (like Hamas and Hezbollah), Iran’s removal from the area would actually align more with Scriptures. As always, we wait to see, but I see no reason to view this development as turning back the prophetic dial. It’s all the other way.
Now to the interesting one:
Russia’s Response
The fall of Assad has the greatest relevance for Iran and Russia, but if we have to pick who this has the furthest reaching impact on, I believe it is Russia. As mentioned earlier, Russia held the greatest sway over Syria as they were the ones keeping the Assad regime in power. This new jihadist group in Syria owes Russia nothing and is likely to try and keep it that way. Russia’s loss of Assad therefore means that their hold in the Middle East is now in doubt. Consider the following headlines which show how important Syria was for Russia’s foothold:
Russia’s decline accelerates thanks to Turkey and Israel in Syria – The Hill
The last article gives a bullet-point summary of why this development is important for Russia, explaining,
· “The downfall of Assad has threatened Russia's military presence in Syria along with its wider strategic objectives.
· “Russia's bases in Syria made it a major diplomatic player in the Middle East.
· “The bases were also crucial for its activities in Africa.”
As we can see, this not only affects Russia’s influence in the Middle East, but also Africa. We might wonder then – If this is so important for Russia, then why were they not able to keep Assad in power?
I believe that Russia failed to keep Assad in power for the same reason Iran did – they are stretched thin, Russia even more so than Iran. With Ukraine and Russia’s other commitments, it seems that they either couldn’t spare the forces or the rebels took over so fast that Russia didn’t have time to plan a proper response. Either way, we must remember that the rebels struck now because they saw that Russia’s ability was handicapped. This civil war has been going on in Syria since 2011, so it’s not as if Russia wasn’t aware of Assad’s enemies. I can only see this as testament that the Russian bear is not what many early writers believed they would be. Perhaps this will help explain why there is also a Russian confederacy which comes against Israel once the Islamic nations are destroyed. Will Russia be unable to carry out the task alone? Maybe so.
Concluding Thoughts
I wish we had time to talk about what China’s doing with Taiwain and how Saudi Arabia is becoming more and more of an enemy of Israel, but those should be considered on their own. Yet I believe that the overthrowing of Assad shows us that the Middle East scenario can change with blinding speed, and as so much of the world rests upon the state of that region, the state of the world changes with it. We know that the most grand of all changes will also originate in the Middle East, for once Christ conquers the land of promise and establishes his government in Jerusalem, the entire planet will be called upon to submit to his gospel, and from this stems the remainder of the latter-day conflicts (in my belief). How blessed we are to see such things developing so clearly, and it should motivate us to keep up the fight of faith in these last days! All of the oppressors like Assad will be removed from every place on earth, and ruling over all will be the Prince of Peace. Our desire is that of the Psalmist:
Psalms 72:1-7 – Give the king thy judgments, O God, and thy righteousness unto the king's son. (2) He shall judge thy people with righteousness, and thy poor with judgment. (3) The mountains shall bring peace to the people, and the little hills, by righteousness. (4) He shall judge the poor of the people, he shall save the children of the needy, and shall break in pieces the oppressor. (5) They shall fear thee as long as the sun and moon endure, throughout all generations. (6) He shall come down like rain upon the mown grass: as showers that water the earth. (7) In his days shall the righteous flourish; and abundance of peace so long as the moon endureth.
In the Hope of Israel,
Tanner Hawkins